In Libya, the Right Choice Must Be Made
In Libya, a large Arab nation blessed and cursed with an abundance of natural resources, a conflict is being fought. It is different from the ones in Syria and Yemen in that it has not brought as much human and material damage, although any clash of armed forces is bound to wound a nation. However, it has a dilemma that has been all too common in the period after the Arab Spring. “Sure, you’ve toppled the old dictator, but the new democracy can be unstable. It may be infiltrated by Islamists, and there is no strong figure to drive out those who want to harm the country. You know us Arabs, we cannot agree on anything! We need a strongman, someone to stomp on our heads and keep us in order.” That is one common line of thinking, especially after the post-2011 crisis in Egypt and the Civil War in Syria that struck like a blade through the heart of that nation. It is a sentiment that even those who were jubilant when 2011’s protests arrived have espoused. On the other hand, you have the line of thinking that goes “Rome wasn’t built in a day. You cannot possibly expect us to recover from decades of authoritarian rule so quickly. You lot are scared of change, or probably miss the days of dictatorship; perhaps you’re traitors! If you do not like the election results, wait and vote the government out and quit making stupid choices.” Such is the case with Libya. After a 2011 revolution propped up by foreign intervention ended four decades of brutal rule by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, the country has not transitioned to democracy in the smoothest fashion. Riddled with militias and regional divisions, the country elected an Islamist government (General National Congress) in 2012, and the new parliament was given an eighteen month deadline to write a new constitution. They failed to meet it, and a 2014 election marred by alleged irregularities and an abysmally low turnout saw a coalition of Secular Nationalists win. The 2012 government cited that the elections looked sketchy and refused to leave office, which led to the newly elected government leaving the capital of Tripoli, and heading to Tobruk in the East, forming the House of Representatives (HOR), as opposed to Tripoli’s General National Congress (GNC). Enter Khalifa Belqasim Haftar. A short biography of the Field Marshal will be presented below
- Born in Adjabiya in eastern Libya to an Arab clan in 1941 and attended Benghazi’s military academy.
- Was one of the military officers who assisted Gaddafi’s 1969 coup that overthrew the Libyan Monarchy and installed a Republic. He participated in Libya’s expeditionary effort in the October War of 1973 which gave him unrivalled military experience.
- This allowed him to be given a leadership role in Libya’s attempted conquest of Chad which started in 1978 and continued for nine years.
- It ended in defeat, and Haftar himself was captured, which embarrassed Gaddafi. While captured, him and fellow imprisoned officers hatched a plot to overthrow Gaddafi, which failed.
- He negotiated his way into asylum in the United States through the C.I.A. and lived in Langley, Virginia for two decades. He returned to Libya in 2011 to join the Revolution, even though he was sentenced to death in absentia by Gaddafi a few years earlier.
- When the crisis of 2014 occurred, he came to the aid of the HOR as the commander of its “National Army’
In 2016, both the GNC and HOR officially agreed to form the Government of National Accord, which almost immediately gained the recognition of the United Nations. However, some members of the GNC and HOR did not comply with the agreement, and many Libyans believe it to be incompetent and unable to solve their country’s mountain of problems. The U.N recognized government is fighting Haftar’s forces, who is your typical Arab military strongman. His backers claim that his “National Army” can represent a unified group that can bring Libya under one government. But I put its name in quotes because in truth, it is merely an amalgamation of militias and mercenaries. The Italian Institute for Political Studies estimates that of the Army’s 25,000 members, only 7,000 are Libyan regulars. The rest include local tribes and various mercenaries such as the infamous Sudanese Janjaweed/Rapid Support Forces, who have committed countless war crimes in Darfur and were the perpetrators of last year’s massacre of protestors in Khartoum, as well as the “Wagner Group”, a Russian mercenary company that has assisted rebels in the Ukraine war and Assad’s regime in Syria. Some consider it to be a tool of the Russian state for when admitting to putting boots on the ground may be risky. Speaking of foreign backing, it is important to compare which nations back Haftar and which back the GNC (Some sources will be cited at the bottom of the article, others will be linked)
Libyan National Army
- Russia : As it tends to do with military dictators, Russia has been propping up Haftar immensely. Andrey Kortunov of the Russian International Affairs Council concedes that the regimes Russia backs are unlikely to introduce democracy in their countries.” “But they can bring order, and therefore we should support them,” he added. Additionally, in Syria they support Bashar Al Assad with a vigorous ground and air campaign that allowed the dictator to regain most of the nation when his rule was hanging by a thread. There, they have been accused of numerous human rights violations. Amnesty International has stated that they have deliberately dropped bombs on civilians and aid workers, while a United Nations report from this year makes the same claim. Doctors Without Borders have stated they or the Syrian Arab Air Force bombed a hospital in Northern Syria, while Amnesty International has identified at least six of the incidents in the Aleppo region alone. Given all the non-partisan acknowledgement of Russia killing Arab Muslims, it is of no surprise they’d do the same elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa. Another one of the military despots Russia is friendly with is Egypt’s Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
- Egypt : Sisi definitely started off his Pharaonic reign with a bang when troops under his command killed 1,000 protestors in a day and arrested 36,000 dissidents. The Commander-in-Chief, who will be president until at least 2030 according to a constitutional amendment, has engaged in quite the foreign policy. He has been called “the most pro-Israel Egyptian President ever”, with the general himself saying him and Benjamin Netanyahu talk “a lot”. In 2016, Sisi admitted to supporting Assad for “the sake of stability” and is so friendly with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that he gave them some of what most Egyptians consider their territory, and when an Egyptian court overruled it, he had his friends in the Supreme Court annul the verdict. What El Sisi is doing here is merely human nature, as he is supporting someone who is just like him; a brutal ruler who may be willing to sell their country’s resources and land for greased up cash, even if this means working with countries that have committed a great number of crimes against humanity and the Arab people. Regarding this, we must move on to another of Haftar’s backers.
- France : This country colonised the two countries to Libya’s west, and definitely kept an invisible hand over them in the years that followed. France supported Zinedine Ben Ali, the dictator that ruled Tunisia for 24 years, and idly watched as Algerians protested to seek civil rights last year. Why is it that when Venezuelans go out to protest for their democratic rights, President Macron is vocally supportive, but stays silent when the nation across the sea does so? It is quite ironic that the country that will forever be known for their revolution in pursuit of democracy has a government that fails to support it elsewhere. Clearly, France simply cannot get enough of oppressing North Africa. It is trying to do what it has done in the previous centuries with extra steps. Despite this, France maintains friendly relations and provide military equipment to a handful of Middle Eastern states, including the United Arab Emirates.
- UAE : The Arab Emirates have done pretty well for themselves, but as an autocratic state, it is in there best interest to assure that democracy stays far away from their territory. In fact, they have been one of, if not the, strongest supporters of Haftar in this conflict. $200 million in aid, along with 100 armoured vehicles, has been given by the Emiratis to the LNA. On top of this, the UAE bought an advanced missile system from Israel, and gave it to Haftar to test out. The country’s development of covert relations with Israel and its increased involvement in regional affairs can prove to be worrying
On the other hand, only Turkey and Qatar supply military aid to the GNA, and diplomatic support comes from the United Nations and the European union, as well as Tunisia and Algeria (Libya’s neighbours and the Maghreb’s new democracies), as well as Italy (possibly to counter French influence). The LNA’s supporters have put in a great amount of effort and unfathomable amounts of money to assist Haftar, but why? After all, they are violating a United Nations arms embargo in order to do so. Realistically, this support is not being given to assist the nation of Libya; Haftar’s history proves that he is prone to commiting actions for self gain, and the governments that support him all have track records of working with other oppressors. So what is it that strongly compels these nations to support Haftar? Well it comes down to two things:
Resources, Resources, and more Resources.
I started off this article by mentioning the large amount of natural resources in Libya, and that is because this fact is central to the country’s situation. Libya has the tenth highest number of oil reserves globally and the highest in Africa. One million barrels come out of Libya on a daily basis at the moment. Imagine the amount that would be produced without the war! Africa’s fourth largest nation is ranked 21st globally in regards to proven gas reserves, The reserves are estimated to hold up to 53,113.0 billion cubic feet of natural gas. In the country’s isolated South, a deposit with upwards of five billion metric tons of iron ore exists. On top of this, profusions of silica exist across Libya, and because of a “Weapons of Mass Destruction” controversy concerning Muammar Gaddafi, it is known that uranium exists there as well. All of this is the perfect recipe for strong countries to diddle and daddle with Libya’s affairs. On the other hand, the country being able to utilise its resources would make it strong, and if it were a democracy, this could shake up the region’s power balance, which bring us to reason #2
#2 : Str*ng Ar*b Dem*cracy
Given Libya’s massive size and enormous supply of natural resources, it would undoubtedly become a regional power if its full potential were to be unlocked. This is unlikely to happen under a dictator like Haftar (he says that he would be a democratic ruler, but Sisi said the same, and that was a lie), since he can hoard the country’s wealth with no real objections. Plus, the help he is receiving comes at a cost, and he will certainly owe his backers should he come out as the victor. To put it directly: Haftars Libya would be a weak Libya. If power was held by the Libyan people, there is a chance they will make decisions that benefit them, their nation, and perhaps their Arab and Muslim kin, which would shake up the Status Quo, and some regimes simply cannot have that happen. Take Sisi, a primary backer of Haftar, as an example. Democracy has come to Tunisia, Algeria is making the transition, and what happens in Libya these days will determine whether the fundamental change shall occur in that country. If the GNA wins in Libya, and democracy arrives at Egypt’s border, the Egyptian people may take note, and Sisi may be sitting in a prison’s cafeteria room rather than the Presidential Palace. Countries like France and Russia would find it more difficult to manipulate Arab nations, and the Gulf nations may lose some of their influence as well.
Conclusion
Some say that, for a multitude of reasons, democracy is impossible in the Middle East; “it will fail, Arabs are not used to it, the Arab society contradicts it, et cetera”. They are right, but their reasons are wrong. Democracy has struggled because on top of having so many figures, institutions and nations work against it, it will not be easy to switch to a different style of government when the same one has been present for decades. The former Eastern Bloc nations have still not completely recovered from their oppressive Communist regimes, but almost any Romanian or Hungarian will tell you they prefer their country now as a free democracy than what it was before. The French revolution occurred over a span of ten years, followed by Napoleon Bonaparte. After, France shifted between democracy and a monarchy. However, by 1870, the nation was solidly a republic, with no change in sight. France is known as one of democracy’s founding nations, but even the French had to struggle to break free from their chains. The Libyan and Arab people need to have patience if they want the quality of their lives to eventually begin going upward. The Insomnia of instability is painful, but the GNC does not claim to be the best government; it claims to be the best available government (words of Taher al Sonni, senior adviser to the GNA.) The frustrations of the Libyan people are justified, but they can be temporary under the transitional government, or permanent under Haftar.
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