What Would the Middle East Look Like With Joe Biden As President?
The former Vice President has come out as the victor of a nail-biter of a race with Donald Trump, who has definitely made an impression on the Middle East. To put it lightly, #45 was definitely a bit bold with his decision making in this area of the world. From moving the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the disputed city of Jerusalem, sticking with Saudi Arabia during the brutal butchering of Jamal Khashoggi, to almost inciting war with Iran, it is more than likely that America’s standing in the region has been negatively affected during these tumultuous four years. President-Elect Biden may want to make changes to the way the United States has conducted affairs there, but what will change, and what will stay the same? Will Biden make proactive and fundamental changes to the region’s geopolitics, or will he simply follow the route his predecessors have taken?
A Look At Saudi Arabia
Former President Trump obviously played favourites when it came to his unwavering support for de facto ruler of the desert kingdom, Prince Mohammad Bin Salman. Right off the bat, a deal was cut that promised $350 billion worth of arms to the Saudis for ten years. This was in slight contrast to the Obama administration, that reconisdered arms sales due to controversy over the Saudi led war in Yemen. As recently as 2018, both Republician and Democratic senators rejected further arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is clear that Biden will have to pursue colder ties with Prince MBS if he means to prove to the Senate that he will do things differently. At the first Democratic Primary Debate, Biden promised to “end aid” to Saudi Arabia and make it a “pariah”. Given Saudi Arabia’s current unpopularity, this promise does not look too flimsy.
Major consequences can arise from this. Many analysts claim that Trump protected MBS, and with Biden less adamant on assisting the heavy handed prince, he may be vulnerable. Bin Salman spent the first two years of his de facto reign purging the upper echelons of the Saudi State in order to consolidate power, and this has defintiely caused strain within the royal family. With less foreign backing, we may potentially see members of the Saudi royal family launch a counter coup, especially likely since MBS released some of those arrested under pressure. It is more than probable they will want revenge.
That being said, do not expect significant change in Saudi Arabia. There isn’t a major alternative to the royal family, and except for one or two spats in the past, the Saudis and Americans have always had strong relations. Should Bin Salman fall, one of his relatives will take the throne, and business will go on as usual. Under American pressure, Saudi Arabia may become less belligerent, scaling back in Yemen and elsewhere. Nevertheless, it is unexpected that the bitter rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran will cease, which begs the question:
How will Joe Biden deal with Iran?
It was during his term as Vice President that the U.S. entered the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Donald Trump pulled out of the historic agreement in 2018, and one of Biden’s foreign policy goals may be to reinstate the deal. Biden slammed Trump’s withdrawal at the time, saying it took “years to achieve”, so some kind of rapproachment with Iran could happen. However, Israel, a close ally of the United States, as well as their many lobbysits in D.C. are adamantly opposed to the deal, so Iran will have to concede more than their nuclear program for a renewal of relations to come about. Because Iran has long been considered a security threat to American allies, America may pressure them to reduce their support of its proxy militias as a prerequsite for closer ties.
This may seem like something that Iran would absolutely reject, but these past two years have seen increasing dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime. A severe lack of democratic rights coupled with an incredibly weak Rial has caused many protests in Iran since 2019. Covid-19 seems to be worsening this situation, meaning that the Iranian government has to calm a frustrated public down. Thus, it should be of no surprise if Iran reduces aid to some militias in Iraq and Palestine. This is unlikely to be the case with Hezbollah though, as the relationship between the two is mutually beneficial. Both Hezbollah and Iran rely on each other in certain cases (e.g countering Israel and the war in Syria), whereas most militias in Iraq seem absolutely dependent on Iranian backing. So despite what pro-Israel members of government may push for, Iran cutting ties with Hezbollah is nearly impossible. This could be the deal breaker in restoring friendly relations with Iran. In short, a mix of the Democratic party urging Biden to settle issues with Iran and the many government figures who seek a complete isolation of that country makes the future of American-Iranian relations uncertain. If no prerequisites are met by the Islamic Republic, Iranian-U.S. relations (or lack thereof) will remain as they are.
Israel and Palestine : Is Biden the Solution?
“My name is Joe Biden, and I love Israel.” That is a quote from his speech at the Israeli Independence Day celebration at the White House in 2015, provided here for the reader to see how impartial Mr Biden is going to be. The former VP, like the vast majority of “Moderate Democrats”, has been supporting the Zionist Movement for quite a long time. Attending his first Zionist conference in 1984, he has since been appearing consistently at events like these. As recently as last year, the Biden Campaign said it would not move the American Embassy back to Tel Aviv, but said they would reopen their mission in Palestinian East Jerusalem in order to “engage the Palestinians.” In fact, Mr Biden’s dedication to Israel is so immense that when he could not attend this year’s conference, he made a six minute video address to the organization
However, Biden is not as monolithic as his predecessor, and he has disagreed with the Israeli leadership before. The President-Elect has expressed his opposition to Israel’s illegal settlements, one time doing it in front of a pro-Israeli lobby. Due to this fact, the Palestinian leadership may be less wary of Biden and his intentions, but will be no different from Obama, Bush and other former American leaders who made defending Israel a foreign policy priority.
Based on the above statements, it seems as though a goal of the Biden campaign will be to reopen American relations with the State of Palestine, and by extension, peace talks with Israel. Should this happen, it will either be one more step in the long road to a solution, or confirmation to the Palestinians that attempting to make peace diplomatically is useless. One thing is for certain, and it is that the United States will always back Israel against its opponents, which includes nations such as
Turkey : Will Biden Put His Foot Down?
The United States’ only Asian NATO ally’s recent infiltration into the North of Syria (which it claims is a self-defence operation against a terrorist group), caused schokwaves in the United States. The targeted group, known as the YPG (People’s Protection Units) was one of the main groups combatting ISIS, and did so with loads of American aid. The Republic of Turkey, alleging the YPG had ties with designated terrorist groups such as the PKK wanted to launch an attack on them, but America had troops in the region meant to assist the YPG. After deliberations with Turkey, Trump pulled most American troops out of there, allowing Turkey to take over a big patch of that area in less than two weeks. Trump was met with outcry for betraying an American ally (not like that’s the first time the United States has done this), so “Amtrak Joe” would be inclined to oppose Turkey and their foreign endeavours.
Mr Biden has previously expressed his discontent with the Turkish government, and in December of 2019, he outlined his plans for Turkey. He spoke about “making it clear we support opposition” and stating he wanted to “defeat” Erdogan. Despite all this, it would not be wise of Biden to scapegoat Turkey, as leaders like Emmanuel Macron of France do. Turkey’s stategically important location, abundance of natural resources and posession of military facilities used by the United States mean that a President Biden will have to tread very lightly when dealing with Turkey. Erdogan has already been gravitating towards Russia, a stark contrast to Turkey’s traditonally warm relationship with the U.S. This is demonstrated by Turkey’s recent purchase of Russian S-400 Missile Systems instead of the usual purchase from the U.S., as well as frustration with America over their refusal to hand over Fethullah Gulen, a leader of a movement called Hizmet that the Turkish government consider terrorists responsbile for a 2016 coup attempt. Becaue of this, Biden will maintain relations with Turkey. Any brash move like sanctions will not be too effective in the long term, and will only serve to have America lose strategic ground in the region. It is likely that he will give vague talk about the reinstatement of democratic rights in Turkey, as well as covertly fund opposition parties and groups within and outside of Turkey. This will continue for some time, and operations that use soft power are likely to be done by the CIA in order to ensure a Turkish opposition victory in the 2023 elections. From then on, a rapproachment will occur, and the new Turkish government will realign with the American camp, either out of self interest or because America will have propped them up. It looks like Biden will play the long game, and part of it may be reducing Turkey’s influence in…
Syria : Will Biden Be A Peacemaker Or Warmonger?
The President-Elect has witnessed the Syrian Civil War’s beginning and middle during his days as VP, and now we are wondering whether he will witness the conflict’s end as the World’s most important leader. Given that he was privy to America’s early policy on Syria, he has probably learned from its mistakes, meaning an operation like Timber Sycamore is unlikely to take place. Many of Obama’s detractors state that the weapons the CIA intended for the Free Syrian Army landed in the hands of Al Qaeda, and eventually, ISIS, so Mr Biden won’t give his opponents a bone to pick on. Given that America is effectively neutral in the conflict now, there can be one of three outcomes.
- America may help mediate. America’s involvement in Syria becomes smaller each year. Their once strong opposition to the Assad regime has withered away, shown by a high-ranking American official making a secret visit to Damascus last month. The reason for the visit was to secure the release of two Americans held in Syria, but the fact that America was willing to talk to Assad using diploamcy and not weaponry is a sign that in the future, Assad may hold more contact with the Americans, and they can be part of some kind of solution to the conflict.
- America will just stay out of it. With the Syrian Opposition being dominated by Islamic Fundamentalists, they will not be able to expect continued American backing. In an effort to not antagonize Turkey, Biden will not publicly support the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes the YPG), and supporting Assad is off the table. The United States shifts its focus to the Persian Gulf, and the fate of Syria remains in the hands of the entities within it and their foreign backers.
- Renewal of backing for the SDF, and a possible blunder. Countries back forces when they have a use in doing so. From 2014 until 2017, the motivation for American support for the SDF was their fight against ISIS. When that threat became non existent, America had abandoned them, but now there is another reason for America supporting this organization : countering Turkey. If Biden renews support for them, he might gain respect from those who severely criticized Trump’s withdrawal, and he also makes sure Turkey does not have a stronger position. One issue with this is that in order to not suffer a complete defeat, the SDF made a deal with the Syrian regime and Russia, and their troops entered into half of SDF territory. If American assistance indirectly gets into the hands of the Syrian Regime, that will serve to Biden’s detriment in a major way, and Biden will have a mix of the criticism Obama got for indirectly aiding a controversial faction in Syria, and the criticism Trump has gotten for assisting Middle Eastern dictators. Thus, even though there is a chance of Biden renewing support for the SDF, it could have awful consequences for him.
Conclusion
President-Elect Joseph R Biden’s approach to the Middle East will certainly be unique in some ways, and typical in others. In Saudi Arabia, we can expect a decline in Mohmmad Bin Salman’s capabililties, if not his complete removal. Negotiations can reopen between Iran and the U.S., but it remains up in the air if they are successful or not. This is the same case in Palestine, where a return to the status quo that existed during Obama’s presidency is likely. Biden will seek to make sure Turkey does not increase its ever expanding influence, but cannnot do this in a really forward manner. To that end, he might have to gain some leverage in Syria, but this would be risky, so America staying out of that country will be on the table as well. What we know for sure is that we would like the future President to have a positive influence as a mediator and not an agitator, and we hope that he can help bring peace and prosperity to the cradle of civilization once more.
